16.5.1.1. Risk of changes in the prices of refinery and petrochemical products and raw materials
Risk of changes in the prices of refinery and petrochemical products and raw materials
| Type of hedged raw material/product | Unit of measure | 31/12/2021 | 31/12/2020 |
| Crude oil | bbl | 20 977 300 | 30 247 180 |
| Diesel | t | 70 000 | 91 250 |
| Heating oil | t | – | 4 000 |
| Gas | gj | 8 975 000 | 9 722 500 |
| Refining margin | bbl | 5 415 000 | – |
| Electricity | MWh | 171 990 | – |
| Other | t | 11 800 | 74 000 |
Sensitivity analysis for changes in prices of products and raw materials
Analysis of the influence of changes in the carrying amount of financial instruments on result before tax and hedging reserve to a hypothetical change in prices of products and raw materials:
| Assumed variations | Influence on result before tax | Influence on hedging reserve | Total | |||||
| 2021 | 2020 | 2021 | 2020 | 2021 | 2020 | 2021 | 2020 | |
| increase in prices | increase in prices | Total influence | ||||||
| Crude oil USD/bbl; CAD/bbl | 31% | 6% | (820) | (51) | 27 | 5 | (793) | (46) |
| Diesel USD/t | 31% | 6% | – | – | (59) | (9) | (59) | (9) |
| Petrol USD/t | 30% | 3% | – | – | (10) | (2) | (10) | (2) |
| Heating oil USD/t | – | 18% | – | – | – | (1) | – | (1) |
| Gas CAD/Gj | 31% | 6% | 21 | 4 | – | – | 21 | 4 |
| Refining margin USD/bbl | 30% | – | (42) | – | – | – | (42) | – |
| Electricity PLN/MWh | 30% | – | (57) | – | – | – | (57) | – |
| (898) | (47) | (42) | (7) | (940) | (54) | |||
At the same percentage price decrease, the sensitive analysis states variations of the same value as in the above table but with the opposite sign.
Applied for the sensitivity analysis of commodity risk hedging instruments variations of crude oil, gas and products prices were calculated based on their historical volatility in 2021.
The influence of changes in prices was presented on annual basis.
In case of derivatives, the influence of crude oil, gas and products prices variations on fair value were examined at constant level of currency rates.