Market prospects in 2022
The economic and social effects of the war in Ukraine and the economic sanctions are difficult to determine. In such circumstances, a reasonable approach is to refrain from predicting what will happen, because dynamic and unpredictable changes driven by geopolitical, including military, factors make baseline scenarios lose their meaning.
SDGs:
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Goal 9
Capitals:
It is reasonable in such a situation to focus on building resilience to various extreme situations (contingency plans).
Market prospects in 2022
Regulations
National Indicative Target – the base level to increase from 8.7% to 8.8% (the reduced indicator for PKN ORLEN is 5.773%)
Capacity market – the ORLEN Group expects comparable (y/y) support for generating unit
The Governmental Anti-Inflation Shield, including reduced excise duty on fuels, exemption from retail tax and reduced VAT on fuels will result in lower fuel prices at service stations, which should stimulate the demand for fuels.
Investing activities of the ORLEN Group
The amount of capital expenditure planned for 2022 is PLN 15.2bn, icnluding PLN 10.7bn development capex and PLN 4.5bn maintenance capex.
The largest expenditure, of PLN 5.1bn, is planned in the Petrochemicals segment, followed by the Refining segment (PLN 4.5bn), Energy (3.9bn), Retail (PLN 1.0bn), and Upstream (PLN 0.3bn).
Key development projects in 2022:
Refining
- Construction hydrocracking unit – Lithuania
- Construction of 2nd gen bioethanol plant – ORLEN Południe
- Construction of HVO unit (hydrogenation of vegetable oils) – Płock
- Construction of visbreaking unit – Płock
Petrochemicals
- Expansion of olefins production capacities – Płock
- Expansion of fertilizer production capacities – Anwil
Energy
- Upgrades of existing assets and connection of new customers – the ENERGA Group
- Construction of CCGT Ostrołęka and CCGT Grudziądz
- Construction of offshore wind farm in the Baltic Sea
Retail
- Development of service station network (> 30 service stations)
- Development of non-fuel retail network (> 30 Stop Cafe/Star Connect outlets)
- Launch of new services and products
Upstream
- Poland / Canada – focus on the Egde, Miocen and Płotki / Kakwa and Ferrier projects
Planned increase of non-current assets in segments in year 2022 [PLN billion]
